Random NBA thoughts

So the NBA kicked off last week. Today there was a huge trade which reminded me that I had yet to get any thoughts/predictions on the record so what better time. I'm gonna start with a long Spurts intro, cause im a homer, and then bulletpoint it up.

Well, in this decade the Spurs pretty much have dibs on the NBA title anytime the season will end in an odd year. Last I checked '09=odd, so might as well hand over the O'Brien trophy now. Sadly, I cant say my confidence is all that high. The Spurs have consistently coasted through the regular season, knowing that they were good enough to take a high playoff seed and then turn it up during the summer. Well, this year the Spurs, who have had age in the negative category for years now, still havent done much too get younger. Not only that but Manu will be down until mid-December at the earliest. Another big issue is the lack of 3 point shooting. Tony's range is still maxed out at about a foot inside the line, Manu is out, Robert Horry and Brent Barry are both gone, and my preseason ray of light in Salim Stoudamire ended up getting cut because of some injuries. This isn't to say that there isn't some intrigue. Mason, Mahimi, and Hill are all question marks that could turn into bright spots. Ian Mahimi has been marinating in the D league the last few years and is apparently now ready to get the job done. If you were here when this blog started back up during the draft, you know I was less than pleased with the George Hill pick. I still wish the Spurs had gotten Darrell Arthur. But all things from the preseason camp was that Hill was everything the Spurs wanted and more, so I will put my faith in pop. Roger Mason brings another body to the lineupto fill in for Manu and has played well the first two games. Another interesting signing was Desmon Farmer. Undrafted out of USC he played well in camp to make the squad and should provide a few minutes off the bench. I think the true impact of signing Kurt Thomas will shine through this year as he will provide good D and allow Tim to get some rest from time to time. However, I'm still a little concerned about the lack of an outside threat as of now. I'll get to my west predictions in a little bit but sadly I just don't see the Spurs getting the title this year. The main reason this is such a shame is because last year is most likely going to be the end of an era...

• While I'm a little down on the Spurs this year, it's nowhere near as how down on the Mavs I am. This team is going to struggle to make the playoffs. The Kidd trade was an incredibly risky move that had to payoff last year if it was going to. Well, it didnt. They still have Josh Howard, but now he is gonna have to wtach himself as much off the court as he is on following a turbulent offseason. Kidd is still a defensive liability that cant get his own shot and Dirk has yet to show that he can lead a team to victory. Combine that with some of the moves other West teams have made, I'd be STUNNED if they were higher than the 7 seed and could easily see them out of the playoffs.
  
• For Phoenix, it will be interesting to see how they reinvent themselves. D'Antoni went to try and resurrect the Knicks and theyre in their 1st full year sans the Matrix. While Shaq continues to decline into a shadow of his former self, Lopez will, I think, be one of the best rookies this year and we will see a true career year for a resurgent Amare Stoudamire. He's now had time to fully recover from his microfracture surgery and I expect Phx to become the Nash-Amare show.
  
• Portland terrifies me. Yes they are way young, and Oden got injured before he could get through a half in the NBA, and two years is when they will be legit title contenders...but are you telling me if you were lined up against this team in the 1st round you wouldn't be scared out of your mind. Even benefit of the doubt, take Oden out of that lineup. You still are looking at Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge carrying the load with a very solid Pryzbilla filling Oden's shoes and stud Rudy Fernandez from Spain coming off the bench. If you saw the Olympics you witnessed Fernandez doing whatever he wanted to against the best we have to offer when he turned it on. I'm not saying they go deep yet, but I would hate to see them next to my team on the bracket.
• Denver made a very interesting move today trading AI to Detroit for Antonio McDyess and Chauncey Billups. I think this works out well for both. Detroit gets tons of cap flexibility for the next 2 years and had probably done as much as they good with Billups, who is on the downswing. AI provides a good uptempo player that should work well with their lineup. Meanwhile, AI never really was a true PG and couldnt focus on helping out KMart and Melo the way that Billups will.
  
• The top three threats in the West tho IMO: Lakers, Hornets, Rockets. Yes the Jazz will be good, in fact, I think they end up taking the 4 spot and the Spurs are stuck at 5. These top 3 teams tho scare the living hell out of me. LA has a focused Kobe who knows how close he was to a ring of his own last year, along with Gasol for the full year and a healthy Andrew Bynum who at only the age of 21 is, I would argue, a top 3 center in the league (with Howard and Yao.) Meanwhile I think CP3 has an MVP worthy year with the Hornets, carrying them to the upper eschelon this year. The only caveat here is I have a history of putting too much faith in Paul. I always took Wake WAYYYY too deep in the NCAA tourney because of my love of his play, and he is still only 23 years old. That being said, I think he showed incredible improvement last year and think he takes over this year. Finally you've got the Rockets. I really think Artest is one of the most underrated players in the league. Whenever people talk about him the 1st thing brought up is always how crazy he is...yah,sure. The thing is he's an elite defender and can score from all over the floor. If you can get Yao and T Mac healthy this is one of the best trios in the league. This will be a strong defensive team that will give teams fits. The question as always will be can they do it in the playoffs, and can you really take it to the next level when a former And1 guy is your best point guard? Aaron Brooks is a good backup who will give them good minutes, but he's already had injury issues, so it's a red flag.
• Just for kicks, here is how I see the west playing out, I'm sure I will be way off, but this could be fun. 1: LA 2:NO 3:HOU 4:SA 5:UTAH 6:PHX 7: POR 8: DEN. Yes, that means I have the Mavs out of the playoffs, am I gonna be wrong...maybe. I feel good about where I have the Suns and Blazers and today's HUGE trade in Denver is very interesting. I like the idea of Billups throwing alley oops to KMart and hitting Melo on the wing. I see Denver beating out the Mavs by a game thanks to Dirk again missing in the clutch on the last day of the season against the Rockets who will still be playing strong battling for seed.
  
• Round 1: LA over Den, NO over POR, HOU over PHX, SA over UTAH. Round2: LA over SA, NO over HOU. WCF: I just don't know, everyone on the interwebs is saying LA, on paper I agree, yet my blinding love of Chris Paul is giving me pause. At the end of the day though I think Kobe is still hungry and Bynum will prove too much for Chandler and Co. LA in 7 in a hell of a series.
• So what about the East, admittedly I dont know nearly as much about it, but I've got a few thoughts.
  
• I think the Magic will be a legit contender this year. Dwight Howard is an absolute freak and I really dont think anyone can really stop the kid. He's gonna put up monster #s this year.
• Cleveland needs to make a move if they want to get back to the finals. I dont think they can continue to rely on LeBron on his own. I think he has a monster year and will be in the top 3 of the MVP (it's either Kobe, Bron, or CP3 this year...again). I think you gotta have more to get through what will be a much more legit East this year. You can't count on him to rattle off 25 straight against a team in the ECF again, its just too much I think.
• Boston and Detroit will both still be up there, but I dont think as good. KG has always been one of the most intense players in the game. However, that hunger came from the fact that he never did anything in Minnesota all those years. Now that he has a ring will he still have that same fire? I'm not sure, I think last year was a perfect storm for them that wont be repeated. Detroit meanwhile made a big shakeup today. AI will provide an up tempo pace, but will he mesh with Sheed, Tayshaun et al? I see them getting knocked out before the ECF this year as they just arent at the level they were a few years ago.
  
• I think Miami should be back to being a decent team this year. D Wade showed he's ready to go in the olypics and Beasely should add some offensive firepower.
• In the end I see Cleveland, Orlando, Boston, and Miami as your final four. Depending on the matchup I think it will be Cle or Orl to advance. Honestly I'm just not sure, I think Cle will make a deal this year to try and show LeBron their commitment to winning in an effort to make him want to resign after next year and put them over the top...only to lose in the finals to either the Lakers or Hornets, most likely LA.
  

So there's a whole bunch of random disjointed thoughts. Call me an idiot, agree with me, or just give me your thoughts and predictions in the comments.