WOOOOOOOOOOO We are back boys and girls. The glorious season of college football is upon us, so therefore it's time to do the damn thing. This little pick contest was amusing last year, so why not do it again. If you weren't around last year here's the plan, I will choose 5 games each week, and we will pick against the spread. I'll be using the lines from Centsports, my free money betting thing, which if you are interested in, let me know. We aren't gonna keep track of spread and straight up records this year, primarily because it was a huge pain and I'm fairly lazy. Feel free to explain your picks and rationalize fully in the comments, but the only picks I will be counting will be those ATS. For those who don't understand spreads, 1st, how are we friends? 2nd, the team with the -# by them is the favorite. If you pick the favorite, they have to win by more than the -#. Simple, yes? Now the 5 games each week will be a combo of the games I find to be the most interesting, the lines I find the most interesting, and the ND game because I'm a huge huge homer. There will be some games I leave off, sometimes cause I dont care, sometimes cause other games/lines interest me more. Bama VT almost got this treatment cause I wanted to pick the UF line, which at last I heard was -72. Sadly I can't find it on anywhere anymore, so oh well.
Normally these will go up on Thursdays, but one of this week's games is on Thursday, so we go a little early. Plus, I wanted a little extra time to try and get people involved because the more the merrier. Your picks only be counted if they get in before the games. Only way I know how to do it, so that's how it is, if it means you only get scored on some of the games that week, so be it. Do me a favor, get em in before Saturday, timestamp checking is lame. So, all that being said, let's go!
THURSDAY GAMES:
#16 Oregon @ #14 Boise St. (-4)
PICK: Oregon +4
No, no no no no no. I feel like this is a gift from the NCAA to knock Boise St out of "BCS Buster Cinderella" contention early. I'm tired of these mid majors. Yes it was awesome that they beat OU with chicanery in the Fiesta Bowl a few years back, yes Chris Petersen has done a hell of a job w/ the Blue Broncs, yes man writers who feel like getting cute are picking them to go undefeated. Not this year. Lagarrete Blount is an absolute beast who will tear through the Boise D, and Masoli poses a lot of threats. Not Dixon level threats, but a lot of threats all the same. Secondary prediction: This game will be unavailable in Asia because the combo of smurf turf and whatever unis Oregon wants to bust out for week 1 would undoubtedly cause an epileptic epidemic in the youngsters of the land.
SATURDAY GAMES:
#20 BYU @ #3 Oklahoma (-22)
PICK: BYU +22
This game could be a lot more interesting than Vegas is expecting. Sure Oklahoma has the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in Sam Bradford, but all of his O-line friends who kept him alive last year are gone. Sure Jermaine Gresham stuck around, and they didn't have as much of a mass exodus on D as they could have, but they lost a lot of talent. I think OU wins, and I think they win by a few scores, but 22? Too high.
#5 Alabama (-6.5) @ #7 Virginia Tech
PICK: VT +6.5
Apparently I'm in the mood for dogs. This will not be an offensive slugfest, both teams tend to rely on their D and Special Teams. Bama fell apart w/ John Parker Wilson at the helm, and they don't even have him to rely on. Not only that, but Utah absolutely abused Bama's O line with Andre Smith suspended. Since the big man is gone for good, Bama is gonna have to figure out how to get back to the road grating line they had been working with. Bama will win this game, but it will be ugly and close.
#13 Georgia @ #9 Oklahoma St. (-5.5)
PICK: OSU -5.5
This to me is the most interesting game on this weekend's slate. Okie St is the chic pick to make noise this year thanks to all kinds of talent returning for Head Coach Mike Gundy. All World WR Dez Bryant is one of the best in the land and is poised for a huge year. But what will OSU do with raised expectations? On the other hand you have Georgia. The Bulldogs a year ago at this point were a preseason #1 and favorite to make the National Championship game behind 1st Rd NFL draft picks Matt Stafford and Knowshon Moreno. However they fell flat. Coach Richt seems to be at his most dangerous though when people are overlooking his squad, which this year is safe to say everyone is. This game, hopefully, will live up to the hype and give us the best contest of the week. I think OSU wins this by 2 scores and Dez Bryant giving some columnists a new dark horse Heisman candidate.
Nevada @ #23 Notre Dame (-14.5)
PICK: ND -14.5
In the past few weeks talking with friends, fellow alums, and random interweb folk, I've heard a lot of people doing their best Lou Holtz impression on this game. Nevada could put a scare into ND, their QB Colin Kaepernick has a cannon and is a real threat. I'm tired of this talk. I'm tired of trying to psych myself out as a fan and letting the failure of the last few years taint my view point. Remember that offense in the Hawaii Bowl? That is what we should see every week this year. For those who say "oooooh Hawaiii, how scarrryyyyy" fair, go ahead. We will deal with the year as a whole later this week. But for this week's game, this Nevada team lost to that Hawaii team giving up 38 points...Sure, Nevada will get a few scores, I've seen the over/under at 61. I'd say hit it hard because ND is coming out to make a statement in this game. This offense is ready to go, and a hair over 2 TDs will be cleared in this game.
So make your picks in the comments kids. Give me thoughts on games you'd like to see in the future, mock my idiocy, praise my prognostication (alliteration baby) or just be sarcastic. Doesn't really matter to me, you cant wipe this smile off my face. College Football is BACK!!!
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
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11 comments:
1. Oregon WIN. Fuck Boise State and blue turf.
2. BYU + 22. OU O-line.
3. Bama - 6.5
4. OSU - 5.5
4. ND - 14.5
1. Boise State - Just like in NCAA the Ducks won't be able to see Boise St. since they blend in with their turf so well. That MLB just pops out of nowhere to pick crossing routes off.
2. BYU +22 but OU to win. I think this game's a lot tighter than 22 and OU has a little bit of history of falling flat with tricky openers (see TCU).
3. VT and the points. There might not be 6.5 points scored in this game total but I'll take VT straight up to win for the upset.
4. OSU, I just don't trust Georgia in a big game...it's kinda like Clemson (maybe it's just teams wearing Orange).
5. As much of a homer as I can be I'll take the 14.5 and a Nevada cover. Running QBs scare me and Kaepernick's probably the best QB period that we see all season. The Irish will win but I'm looking at something like 35-24. Nevada's ground game will chew up clock and we've played well in precisely 1 season opener (Pitt '05) in the last 7 years. Even the openers we've won have been shaky (@GT, SDSU, WSU '03). We'll win, and probably have the score be closer than the game as I think Nevada gets a late TD to cover.
1) Oregon
2) OU
3) Bama
4) OSU
5) ND
1. Boise State to cover...their record at home over the past few years is absurd. But this game has the possibility to have the most ridiculous trick plays.
2. BYU to Cover, OU to win (I know you aren't keeping track of this, I just want to keep myself accountable).
3. Va. Tech to cover, and win. I think that Bama is the better team, but the fans at Blacksburg are going to be amped and are good for a few points.
4. OSU to cover. UGA's has to replace so much that it will be tough for them to win this game so early. If this game is at the end of the season, I think Georgia wins.
5. ND to cover big. 42-17, mark it down.
I'm going to need these picks earlier in the week if I'm going to have any chance in my college football pick 'em league.
1. Boise State going away. I respect people's vitriol for the SmurfTurf, but I think this game won't be close. First marquee match-up of the year, the SmurfCrowd is going to be going apeshit, and Oregon has a first-year coach. I don't think this will be as close as people think. But I also hate mid-majors, so I'm okay if I'm wrong. Plus, I'm investing at -3, so I'll be fine with a push here.
2. BYU with the points, only because I'm a homer too. But let me tell you something about Oklahoma: they don't give a fuck about any missing o-linemen. They are going to run roughshod all over the Mormons. I'm just hoping for a miracle upset. Or six-game injuries.
3. Alabama to cover. There are two rules for betting that I follow religiously: first, never bet on a team you can't root for; second, always bet against popular teams. This won't be well-received by society, but let's face it: ever since the shooting rampage, they have the public's sympathy. They are miserable ATS. Never bet on them, ever.
4. Okie State. They are legit. They just have this misfortune to come of age in the era of Colt McBradford and Company (for the record, it makes me sick that they are apparently such great friends). We're about to witness a Mizzou-like meteoric rise to the top, only to never get over the hump and get crushed in the next year or two. Just like the oil prices they based their future on. Welcome to manhood.
5. Nevada. Notre Dame wins for sure, but see Rule #2. Over 75% of the moneyline is going to ND at -600!!! What??? That's absurdly low value. People bet ND blindly (as they do Texas, the Cowboys, Yankees, Lakers, etc.) and therefore you always get a distorted line. Couple that with favorites always getting more attention (and thus worst lines) and, not knowing more about the teams, you gotta play the odds here and take the points.
Thank God it's here at last.
Marc wanted in but were a a bar. He's taking Oregon +4
Boise State (-4)
Oklahoma (-22)
V Tech (+6.5)
Oklahoma St. (-5.5)
Notre Dame (-14.5)
KB also has Oregon at the buzzer
I'm a moron. I knew the game was in ATL, but when I saw Bama @ Va. Tech on your picks, I totally forgot. I am changing my pick to Bama to beat the spread/win. It is 6:07 and the game hasn't started, so this is legit.
Most prophetic prediction goes to... me for my BYU miracle cover and "six-game injuries". They're saying 2-4, but let's get serious, with injury hangover, this is good for the full 6.
Also, the SmurfTurk curbstomping was a close-second. Minus points for missing ND call...
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