Baseball is back ladies and gentlemen. While my love of the game may have fallen below that of football and basketball at times in the last few years, baseball is still the game of my youth. Most of you that know me know that I grew up with the game, playing from age 5 through high school (switch hitting 3rd baseman with a penchant for being due up with 2 on and 2 out). I spent my summers growing up traveling around the country with my mom and eventually one of my younger sisters trying to hit every MLB ballpark. We still have about a quarter left to hit thanks to recent openings and out of the way destinations. As will become easily apparent throughout the season I'm a huge Atlanta Braves fan. I've caught a lot of flack for it since I grew up in Austin, most say I should have gone with the Stros or Rangers. But hey, I got more Braves games on tv thanks to the old TBS deal than Astros and Rangers combined, and they were my t-ball team, I thought we were the same team. Either way, theres no doubt that one of my favorite all time sports memories was Sid Bream rounding 3rd to beat the Pirates and forcing Barry Bonds down the dark path of steroid abuse since his arm was too weak to gun him down. Now that all of that is out of the way, let's get to some random predictions, shall we?
AL West:
This one is a no doubter in my mind, and has been for the last few years. Since Oakland has perfected their fire sale mentality, the Angels have had this sucker on lockdown. The Rangers will score tons of runs but give up almost double, and the Mariners, well theyve got Ichiro and King Felix, that's about it tho. Angels should take this running away.
AL Central:
This one should provide a good battle with most of the teams having a shot at the crown. I'm going with Cleveland this year. I think Grady Sizemore is going to really blow up this year and with Lee and Carmona they've got a solid rotation going. Minnesota doesn't have the firepower and the White Sox are too unpredictable and inconsistent, especially with Guillen at the helm.
AL East:
This one is always a battle, but now after last years surprise people are considering it a 3 team race. The Rays made a surprise run and have a fun young team that deserve better than the 45 people on average that will show up for regular season games. HOWEVAH, I don't see them making a similar run this year. I think ESPN will get their wish with Boston and NY fighting down to the wire for the crown w/ both still making it. I'm going to give the Yankees the nod for the division this year after adding Teixiera and Sabathia to an already absurd team but Boston wont be far behind, taking the Wild Card.
PLAYOFFS:
That being said, I think Boston is setup the best in the playoffs. With a stacked lineup, arguably the best closer in the game, and a starting rotation for the playoffs that will include Becket, DiceK, my man Smoltz, and throw in Wakefield's Knuckler...you've got a tough tough team. I'm thinking Boston over Cleveland in the ALCS
AWARDS:
MVP: Grady Sizemore, Cleveland
Like I said, I think this is the year that Grady really breaks through and reaches the upper eschelon's of the game. This kid can do it all and I expect to see him put it together this year.
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez, Seattle
There are a lot of possibilities for this award, Sabthia, Lee, Liriano in a comeback, but for some reason I'm thinking we will get a diamond in the rough situation with King Felix in Seattle. He's gonna be hungry this year and expect a 20 win year performance out of him. While he will do his part, it will come down whether or not he gets the help he needs around him.
ROTY: Elvis Andrus, Texas
This award is always a crapshoot since we are dealing with relative unknowns. Andrus is legit however as the Rangers see enough in the kid to force Michael Young, a 5 time all star and all star MVP mind you, to move positions.
Now we go back to the more civilized world of the NL where the game isn't tainted by the abhorrent designated hitter.
NL West:
I think we are going to get another 2 team race here this year between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. While Arizona has some great arms I think the Dodgers have too much power to be caught and see them winning the division fairly handily.
NL Central:
This division should be a fun one to watch this year. Most of the action will be between the Cubs and Cardinals again, but the Astros and Brewers could both put up a fight. This one is going to go down to the wire I think. While Pujols is always a threat, I think the Cubs have better pitching w/ Zambrano and Dempster and will sneak by in one of the closer division races.
NL East:
Finally we get to what I think will be the best battle of the year. This should be another 3 team race with 2 making the postseason. Between the World F****** Champs (© Chase Utley), the recently Choke happy Mets, and of course the Braves, this will go down to the wire. You've got several Cy and MVP candidates here in the East in what will make for several entertaining matchups. While I am pumped about the Braves and expect big things, I dont think they will get the division crown this year. HOWEVAH, I expect them to sneak in as the wild card team, right behind the Mets. Before you accuse me of being a homer (not unfairly) I think the Braves are going to have a fantastic starting rotation this year. If you didn't see last night's performance, Derek Lowe absolutely tore through the Phillies lineup, giving up only 2 hits and 0 runs in 8 innings. Javier Vazquez is a work horse and Jair Jurrjens is an ace in the making. Add in Kawakami, a Japanese import with fantastic control, Tim Hudson when he gets healthy, and Tommy Hanson soon enough, one of the best pitching prospects in the game, and you've got one of the best starting rotations in the league. While there isn't a sure fire power guy, the lineup is full of guys that can hit homeruns and should do enough to get wins. I think this year finally end the Mets choking habits as the Phils see a little bit of a slip from last year. Their pitching was lights out and you obviously count out a team w/ both Utley and J-Roll, but I think this will be a case of resting on their laurels. Meanwhile you've got names like Santana, Reyes, Beltran, and Wright that will carry the Mets all year.
PLAYOFFS:
While the Braves will make it back to the playoffs this year, I think it will come down to matchups. If they get LAD I think they lose, if they get the Cubs I think they win. I think it will come down to the Dodgers and Mets in the NLCS and go 7 games. Right now, I'm giving the Mets the nod because I think the K-Rod signing will end up being the most important of this years offseason.
AWARDS:
MVP: Albert Pujols
Again there are tons of guys that can put up big #s, Howard, Han Ram, and Beltran will all be up there, but I'm expecting a big year out of Big Al.
Cy Young: Roy Oswalt
Again, plenty of great pitchers in the league, so why give it to Roy-O? 2 words kids: contract year. Oswalt is ready to get paid and get out from under a team that has refused to give him run support for years. Expect Oswalt to rebound from a less than stellar WBC and add to the 0's at the end of his next deal.
ROTY: Jordan Schafer
Ok, this is me being flagrantly homerrific, but this kid is a stud. Yes he had a setback when he got popped for HGH a few years back. That aside, Jordan is a fantastic young player with tons of talent both on offense and defense. Not only that, but he became the 99th player to start his career with a Home Run in his 1st At Bat. Not a bad start for what I expect to be a productive year.
WORLD SERIES:
So I've got it down to the Sox and Mets in the World Series. While it pains me to predict a ring for a town that clearly doesn't need another right now, Buckner isn't at first and Mookie isn't coming to the plate any time soon. Boston is built for the postseason this year I think. Plus, the Mets do love to choke.
So there you go, there's one set of predictions from someone clearly unqualified to give them. Let me know your thoughts down in the comments. Play Ball.
Monday, April 6, 2009
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4 comments:
one of my fondest baseball memories as well. I also share your love of the Braves even though every one in my home town is an Astros fan as well. TBS did it right!! Agree with most predictions. Don't know about the Sox in the ALCS tho. You better hope Smoltzey's arm holds up and Wakefield's knuckleball can find its movement in the playoffs for that prediction to hold up.
Good stuff!
Here are my thoughts:
AL West: Spot on- hard to disagree here. Even with Matt Holiday, I don’t see Oakland passing the Halos, unless these pitching injuries repeat and/or continue.
AL Central: I don’t see Lee repeating anything close to last year’s performance. I’m going with the Tigers. With a healthy rotation, especially Verlander,
AL East: I agree, mostly. It’s hard for me not be bias, as I’m a Yankee fan, but I disagree with the playoffs. Barring injury, the Yankees have the edge here. Burnett ate through the Sox line up, CC will awesome and for some reason, people forget all about CM Wang. He’s an outstanding pitcher and CY contender (he won’t win, but he’s in the running). Andy Pettitte may be old, but he’s still a phenomenal big-game pitcher. In a 5 game series, they can put Joba in the pen (as he’ll be approaching inning limits) and have a solid bridge to Mariano Rivera, who is in fact the best closer in the game- ESPECIALLY October.
Wakefield is average on his best day, Dice-K was the luckiest athlete in the world last year if you look at his peripherals and Smoltz is going to get tattooed in the AL east. 40-something year old pitcher coming off major shoulder surgery? I’m not holding my breath.
However, if the Tigers (and perhaps Cardinals) do poorly, expect a fire sale- a fire sale involving two outstanding first baseman. The Sox aren’t getting Teix’ed out of this one. If that happens, it’s Sox for the next 3 years.
(on the flip side- Oakland may want to part ways with Matt Holiday if things go poorly. Yankees are prime for this one. Yankees are looking to move Swisher and/or Nady.)
Kinda funny- The Yankees v. Sox duel comes down to the Tigers and maybe Cardinals.
MVP A): Joe Mauer. Last year, he was already an MVP contender at age 25. 26, 27 and 28 are prime ages for offensive players, a bit earlier for catchers who break down earlier. He might not get it if the Twins don’t make the playoffs though.
MVP B) A-rod? He is probably the most cyclical player in baseball. Up year, down year, up year, down year… last year was a down year… and despite being out for about 15% of the season with an injury, he was just a few homeruns shy of the title.
Cy Young is up in the air. I throw Hernandez, Sabathia, Joba (if healthy and allowed to pitch without an innings cap) and .. my pick, Roy Halladay.
Best closer: I’m going with Joakim Soria, assuming KC gives him save opportunities. The kid is the next best closer in baseball.
ROTY: Got me. Like you said- it’s a guessing game.
Oh the NL, the only place in the world where they call the pitcher up to bat for an auto-out, because baseball was just too fast paced.
NL West: I don’t see the D-backs going anywhere this year. The Giants are going to beat the D-backs, but Manny and the Dodgers all the way. If for no other reason, because Joe Torre knows how to land ass backwards in the right spot at the right time. I’m going with the Dodgers, but I will say that it wouldn’t shock me to see the Giants pitch their way past them.
NL Central: No way the brew crew is doing anything without sheets and CC. Sorry. CC was carrying them defensively and even offensively a bit. The Cubs are perhaps the best team in the NL (debatable)- but they certainly aren’t getting competition from the NL Central. It’s theirs to lose with injuries.
NL East: The mutts can screw anything up. Seriously. Just give them a chance. With Rollins back, the Phillies are he team to beat in the NL, I hate to say it.
MVP: Pujols. Best player in the game right now. I don’t see Manny beating him- especially with nagging injuries showing up.
Cy Young: No way on Roy Oswalt in his age. Santana is showing his age and he’s going to battle it out in the N East too often, but I still think he has it. On top of that, the NL batters have seen him for a year now. I’m rolling with Tiny Tim to repeat (yeah, I know…)
ROTY: I won’t even speculate, but I like your pick.
World Series: Yankees v. Cubs, making it the most watched world series in history by a wide margin. Yankees win it in 5 despite the hatred of baseball fans worldwide, and another A-rod fiasco explodes shortly thereafter.
Good stuff guys, I like a lot of your picks Ashkan but Joe Mauer? Dude is the new Mr. Glass, I'll be stunned if he gets over 100 games
Yeah, I know about Joe Mauer... It's opening day though. I'm willfully ignorantly optimistic that he will have a great year. Then again, I think Burnett isn't full of crap when he says he "figured out" pitching without getting hurt so don't take my predictions seriously.
Honestly, if I HAD to bet money at this point of the season, and I couldn't bet on the Yankees, Red Sox or Cubs I'd bet on the Tigera...
I might ever bet on them overall... Keep in mind, last year, everyone thought it was given- Tigers win the AL. Then everyone got hurt and underperformed.
You can only get (un)lucky for so long. Dare I go so far as to say as to change my opinion and say the Tigers are #1 in their division... I do. I do. C'mon. Look at their lineup. It's gotta produce eventually!
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